January 13th, 2010
Posted by Jim Warner
I ran accross this article today looking for some good news to post. The headline was encouraging, Fed Sees Recovery Spreading. As I read the article though, I became less and less sure what the good news really was. According to the Federal Reserve, there are signs of economic recovery breaking out all over the place, unless of course you are looking for a job, in which case the economy is not really working in your favor and may not be for quite some time.
The Fed did decide to keep lending rates low for the foreseeable future, which sounded like good news until they went on to say that requests for borrowing were way down because of tighter credit restrictions on lending.
Consumer Spending during the holidays and Some signs of Stabilization in the manufacturing sector were enough to encourage a positive outlook from those looking to report on signs of a recovery. A closer look revealed that the good news was actually that things just stopped getting any worse, as some had feared.
There was one true bright spot however… housing demand seems to be increasing due largely to lower prices and tax incentives.
So get in on the game while you can. When a true recovery begins to show up, things will change quickly and having a leveraged asset during a period of high inflation is where you and I are most likely to start gaining some ground. Right now it’s Low Prices, Low Interest Rates, Seller Incentives and if you’re willing to roll the dice, You might just collect an $8,000 Tax Credit for passing GO!
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January 4th, 2010
Posted by Jim Warner
Dig Deep
As we leave 2009 in our rear view mirror and look ahead to the challenges and possibilies presented us in 2010 – I offer you this inspirational video to set the tone for how we move ahead. There is in each of us more strength than we know. Who is your master… Fear or Faith? Dig deep, dream big, be strong! Anything is possible.
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December 23rd, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
Things are not always as they first appear
Just a day after reports that sales of Exsisting Homes had exceeded expectations and had improved some 30% over year ago sales, today’s news sucker punched the market when it was reported that sales of New Homes were off of forecasters expectations by some 20%.
The Story followed yesterdays market rally on news that exsisting home sales had surged surprising the “experts” who influence bets in the marketplace based on their insights and prognostications. The “experts” were surprised again today when new home sales numbers came up short.
It seems to me the news here is that the markets are so touchy and reactive to the reports in the first place.
Any thinking person knows that the overall market is currently skewed by artificial stimulation in the form of record low interest rates and tax breaks that are subject to change at any time. Many people thought the $8,000 tax credits for first time homebuyers might go away in November as scheduled and the uncertainty created a rush to buy in September & October. The tax breaks were then not only extended but expanded to move up buyers so forecasters needed to recalibrate once again.
One need only look at the drop in average and median prices of the sales that have occurred, even as unit volume has increased, to conclude a glut of undervalued bank owned and distressed properties probably explains the jump in existing home sales vs. new.
For new homes, it is difficult to compete in the marketplace with the values available to buyers willing to shop for bargains in resale.
It really is a great time to be a qualified buyer. Not so much a market forecaster. Do your homework, shop around and get some professional help because with all the variables and shifting sands, even the so called experts aren’t always quite sure of what they’re looking at when placing bets on the direction of the housing markets.
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September 17th, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
Just around the corner
This Just in… American’s Net Worth grew by 2 Trillion Dollars in the Spring Quarter of this year. While we’re not quite as flush as we were back in 2007 or even 2008 when things really took a turn for the worse, we seem to be doing just fine by world standards as our net worth is about equal to the whole world’s output for a single year. American’s have a net worth of about $53 Trillion vs $65 Trillion back in the day. So while we still have a ways to go to get ahead of the game, all this worrying about how we’re going to pay for the stimulus, the bailout, health care and the national debt seems to be just that much unnecessary hand wringing. Click here to read more about where all this money is hiding and how we managed to grow by such a big number. Seems that when Mr. Bernanke declared the Recession all but over he had an ace up his sleeve with this much good news just around the corner. I feel better already.
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August 21st, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
I ran accross this article today and Just felt like sharing it. For many, this Economic Speed Bump has shaken the faith in their belief in the American Dream. Some who bought in and thought they were playing by the rules, found out the hard way what happens when things don’t go according to plan. Families displaced, communities fractured, dreams put on hold. Real consequences for wrong choices or unanticipated circumstances. There is life beyond the carnage. Things can and do get better for for most. Count your blessings daily and look for the opportunity that is everywhere. This is still the greatest country in the world. We just have a little growing up to do as we adjust to the new realities of a global economy.
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August 21st, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
Record Jump in Existing Home Sales Reported … I have generally conducted myself as a glass half full kind of guy for most of my life. Understandably, the last two years have tested my resolve in that regard. After 24 years of success in the Seattle real estate business, things really got fuzzy for me trying to keep a good face on the state of the market while the wheels pretty much came off the bus in the housing sector. For the past few months there has been more good news than bad as inventory has been steady and sales have been gaining some traction in many local markets. While there are those that keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, there is plenty of evidence that things are turning around on many fronts and there are once again, many good reasons for renewed optimism to balance off lingering trepidation. Mind you, prices are still soft and no one expects there aren’t going to be some more bumps in the road, but as the attached article points out, some see that as part of the solution to a longer term fix. I am one of those who believe the media was largely responsible for talking us into the recession and so it is with a sense of mixed irony and satisfaction, I am happy to see them beginning to work on talking us out of it. For now, it is refreshing to at least find some good news to talk about for a change. Here’s to a glass half full!
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August 21st, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
Social Media is advancing at breath taking speeds… Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, Blogs, Etc. For some it seems like just so many more ways to waste time on the internet, for others it is the wild west of opportunity. Here is a quick video primer on just how prolific Social Media Networking is becoming – not just as a way to spend time on the internet, but for many it is the new paradigm and primary means of communicating and conducting commerce. For the baby boomers and others, just trying to keep up can be a constant challenge. For the Gen X and Y crowd, it’s how they communicate and how they are influenced. No matter where you are on the spectrum, Social Media is affecting your world and it is time to take charge or take the hit. I look forward to your comments.
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August 3rd, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
This past weekend I happened to catch both Larry Summers and Tim Geitner – two of president Obama’s top Economic advisors – doing the Tax Increase Two Step as they danced around the 800 pound gorilla sitting squarely in the middle of the room. I was struck by the thought that as much as everyone wants to avoid saying it, the math on reducing deficits and expanding benefits is invariably going to require a reconciliation at some point. President Obama seems destined to experience the same fate as befell George Bush Senior when he famously declared, ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ – he was left to feast on a huge plate of crow when the reality of the economics he faced forced the issue in the other direction. As with Bush, Sr. - Obama’s recovery from such a dramatic hit to his personal credibility will be tough to overcome politically and it will make enacting his ambitious reforms that much more difficult as well.
From where I sit, the longer this charade drags on the worse for all concerned as it looks more and more like the public is once again being assumed gullible if not stupid for continuing to believe there isn’t going to be a tax consequence for all the administration is trying to take on. The economy is not going to rebound soon and/or sufficiently enough for us to grow our way out of this one.
As I watched Geitner and Summers squirm while trying to avoid a direct answer to the fairly obvious question about the likelihood of a middle class tax increase, I realized that once again we are being played while the Spin Meisters try to figure out how not to actually say what we all know is true. My heart began to sink as I came to the inescapable conclusion that what we are being told and the reality of what our leaders know to be true is once again painfully at odds.
I like president Obama – but he has come this far largely on the back of his personal credibility, the general sense that he knew what he was doing and the strong desire of the public to want to again trust the leaders of this country. That is now all placed at risk by events as they are unfolding and an apparent unwillingness to come clean about how we’re going to pay for what needs to be done.
When a leader says something with as much emphasis and conviction as candidate Obama did when he repeatedly promised ‘not a single dime of new taxes on people earning under $250,000′ there isn’t much wiggle room and therefore ought not be any doubt about what is going to be needed to fund the dramatic initiatives being proposed. Obama now looks like he was either pandering for votes or he flat out didn’t know what he was talking about because he didn’t do his homework. Either way the net effect is that he has now handed his political rivals all the ammunition they would ever need to pin him to the wall and the rest of us are left scratching our heads wondering how it could all go so wrong so fast. You can sense the creeping paralysis that will again occupy congress as the politicos attempt to distance themselves from the fallout of backing a story that doesn’t hold water vs. the backlash of voters who feel betrayed no matter which way this plays out.
Not that we all couldn’t or didn’t see this coming… The Reality is that many, many people are going to need help for a long time to come and we as a nation are going to have to finally start paying our bills because, like the homes we so casually used as ATM’s for the past decade, our kids are already under water from our past debts and fiscal debauchery. It’s not fair to keep passing the bills along.
At some point, the hope would be that our leadership would eventually get to where they can trust the people enough to give us the straight scoop. That would allow us to all get on with helping to fix the problems, such as they are, not how we might wish them to be. Until that happens, the chances of a real economic recovery are as illusory as the answers that the leadership is pushing in the face of incontravertable evidence about what it is going to take to pay for the programs they are committed to.
We should all begin to plan accordingly.
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July 24th, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
Signs of Improvement
The Housing Market continues to bump along in Snohomish County. Still a mixed bag of news but by many accounts, things seem to be balancing out for the time being. Although nobody is ready to start doing a happy dance anytime soon, the fact that sales remain steady, inventory continues to decline and financing remains attainable for qualified buyers - means there is plenty to cause the marketplace to breathe a little easier for now. Bargain Hunters and Eager Sellers (Banks & Builders) are continuing to put pressure on prices but even that seems to be changing as the bottom end sellers become mid range buyers. We are seeing well priced houses garnering offers in weeks instead of months and although it is a tougher go, agents report being very busy writing offers (see net pendings above) and closing escrow. No time to tackle the market without an experienced agent though, as having good resources and contacts can make all the difference when it comes to getting things done. That discount or rebate on the commission might look good going in but when push comes to shove, there is nothing like experience to navigate these rough waters. So choose your agent wisely no matter which side of the deal you are on.
The absorption rate remains around 21% – meaning we have a five month housing inventory to work with vs. 7.5 months this time last year. That means prices should firm up a tidge. For perspective we’re about three times the level of inventory we had at the peak of the market in June of 2006 when there was only a 1.5 month supply of housing and homes went multi offer in a matter of days. Sellers seem to be getting more realistic and Buyers are again making offers, which is bringing the market back into balance for the time being. In other signs of balance in the marketplace – even the commentators can’t seem to muster clarity in their reporting on the direction of things. On Thursday one news source headlined the stock market bounce and the end of the recession due to higher home sales nationwide. Then on Friday the same news source noted a pall on the Markets brought about by low consumer confidence and the fact that housing wouldn’t recover for quite some time.
It’s still plenty tough out there but I think the early birds are finding plenty to be optimistic about.
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June 29th, 2009
Posted by Jim Warner
I am excited to share this video with anyone who’s got three minutes and an open mind. What is being presented is an opportunity that comes around maybe once or twice in a person’s lifetime. An opportunity to market products that actually work, that people want and that make an immediate and positive difference. An opportunity to control of one’s own financial destiny by taking charge and making a commitment to personal success. In these uncertain economic times, that’s no small thing. If not you, then someone you know is looking for an opportunity or is concerned about being displaced. Ageloc is a brand new, scientifically based technology that reverses the affects of aging and at the same time addresses the causes of aging at the source. The market for this technology and these products is immense. In the coming months there will be an avalanche of scientific and peer reviewed information emerging that supports the science behind the Ageloc technology. You can wait for the horse to get out of the barn or you can get in front of this fantastic opportunity. Take a look and let me know if you’d like to find out more. I’m happy to share the goods. There’s a lot to like. click on the photo above to view a brief video or visit www.youthloc.com for more information.
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