Snohomish County Undressed

A Speed Bump on Recovery Road

Experts are saying it is not asign that we’re going to experience a douple dip in the housing downturn. There’s plenty of signs that the economy is in recovery and things are getting better. That said, it is going to be a bumpy road to recovery and last month’s drop in sales of existing homes would appear to be one of those bumps. Frankly, after the uptick in home sales that occured before the tax credit was extended and with seasonality factored in, this was to be expected. What may seem like bad news on the face of it really is a word to the wise that the opportunity to buy is really right now! Low interest rates, sluggish sales and a recovery underway make for three good reasons buyers should get busy and make the most of this window of opportunity!

The Quants – Too Incredible to Make Up

Details are finally beginning to emerge on just how things spun out of control on Wall Street so quickly back in 2007. A new book due out in February by the Wall Street Journal’s Scott Patterson, shines a light on a highly profitable but little understood segment of trading that for years had essentially ‘printed money’ for the large Wall Street investment banks.

Run by a core of Math Whiz kids using supercomputers and complicated mathmatical formulas and pimped to the bank executives by high powered brokers and investment fund managers – it was a meltdown looking for a place to happen and when it did, those responsible were powerless to stop it.

You could not make this stuff up – as Tom Clancy once said, the difference between writing fiction and non fiction is that fiction has to be believable!

Molly Hightower – A Big Why & A Life Well Lived

I didn’t know Molly Hightower of Port Orchard. I learned of her as I watched the news of the Haitian Disaster unfold.

Molly was from Port Orchard and that brought things closer to home for me as I am a graduate of Bainbridge Island High School in Kitsap County. 

Molly’s Plight made the images and the desperation all seem much more personal for me as I tried to comprehend the magnitude of the tragedy. For days rescuers were trying to find Molly amidst the ruins of the orpahange she had spent the last seven months working at. The seven story building had collapsed on her as she napped. On Thursday news and hope came in the form of reports that experienced rescue crews from Virginia were on site and help was at hand to try and save Molly. Today, Sadly, we get news that her body has been recovered from the debris.

I went to facebook and then followed a link to her blog. As I read about her efforts and experiences in Haiti, working with the orphans, Tears welled up in me and I was profoundly moved by the incredible spirit and dedication of this bright and gifted 22 year old “neighbor” I had never met.

I have always understood that true success in life is only possible when one has determined a “Big Why” for themselves. Something that drives them beyond their own personal needs and comfort. I have found that when things are out of balance in my life it is generally because I have taken my eye off the bigger picture, the Big Why.

At such a young age, the 22 year old Molly Hightower was already an enormous success. Having followed her heart and passions to a far away place to help those in need of her talents and generous spirit.

Take a moment and read about Molly. In her story one can truly come to appreciate the difference a truly committed person can make in this world. You may also find some inspiration to help you define a bigger why for yourself.

I did not know Molly Hightower, but I believe her story has changed my life in ways I have yet to understand fully. Her early demise is not the loss it might have been for she has made the most of her time among us.

Molly lives on as a shining example of a life well lived and as an inspiration to all of us to find a Big Why and Live it!

You Can’t Win if You Don’t Play – Fed Sees Recovery Spreading

I ran accross this article today looking for some good news to post. The headline was encouraging, Fed Sees Recovery Spreading. As I read the article though, I became less and less sure what the good news really was. According to the Federal Reserve, there are signs of economic recovery breaking out all over the place, unless of course you are looking for a job, in which case the economy is not really working in your favor and may not be for quite some time.

The Fed did decide to keep lending rates low for the foreseeable future, which sounded like good news until they went on to say that requests for borrowing were way down because of tighter credit restrictions on lending.

Consumer Spending during the holidays and Some signs of Stabilization in the manufacturing sector were enough to encourage a positive outlook from those looking to report on signs of a recovery. A closer look revealed that the good news was actually that things just stopped getting any worse, as some had feared.

There was one true bright spot  however… housing demand seems to be increasing due largely to lower prices and tax incentives. 

So get in on the game while you can. When a true recovery begins to show up, things will change quickly and having a leveraged asset during a period of high inflation is where you and I are most likely to start gaining some ground. Right now it’s Low Prices, Low Interest Rates, Seller Incentives and if you’re willing to roll the dice, You might just collect an $8,000 Tax Credit for passing GO!

A New Year – Give it All You’ve Got

Dig Deep

As we leave 2009 in our rear view mirror and look ahead to the challenges and possibilies presented us in 2010 – I offer you this inspirational video to set the tone for how we move ahead. There is in each of us more strength than we know. Who is your master… Fear or Faith? Dig deep, dream big, be strong! Anything is possible.

Housing Reports Require a Second Look

Things are not always as they first appear

Just a day after reports that sales of Exsisting Homes had exceeded expectations and had improved some 30% over year ago sales, today’s news sucker punched the market when it was reported that sales of New Homes were off of forecasters expectations by some 20%.

The Story followed yesterdays market rally on news that exsisting home sales had surged surprising the “experts” who influence bets in the marketplace based on their insights and prognostications. The “experts” were surprised again today when new home sales numbers came up short.

 It seems to me the news here is that the markets are so touchy and reactive to the reports in the first place.

Any thinking person knows that the overall market is currently skewed by artificial stimulation in the form of record low interest rates and tax breaks that are subject to change at any time. Many people thought the $8,000 tax credits for first time homebuyers might go away in November as scheduled and the uncertainty created a rush to buy in September & October. The tax breaks were then not only extended but expanded to move up buyers so forecasters needed to recalibrate once again.

One need only look at the drop in average and median prices of the sales that have occurred, even as unit volume has increased, to conclude a glut of undervalued bank owned and distressed properties probably explains the jump in existing home sales vs. new.

For new homes, it is difficult to compete in the marketplace with the values available to buyers willing to shop for bargains in resale.

It really is a great time to be a qualified buyer. Not so much a market forecaster. Do your homework, shop around and get some professional help because with all the variables and shifting sands, even the so called experts aren’t always quite sure of what they’re looking at when placing bets on the direction of the housing markets.

Light at the end of the Tunnel

Just around the corner

This Just in… American’s Net Worth grew by 2 Trillion Dollars in the Spring Quarter of this year. While we’re not quite as flush as we were back in 2007 or even 2008 when things really took a turn for the worse,  we seem to be doing just fine by world standards as our net worth is about equal to the whole world’s output for a single year. American’s have a net worth of about $53 Trillion vs $65 Trillion back in the day. So while we still have a ways to go to get ahead of the game, all this worrying about how we’re going to pay for the stimulus, the bailout, health care and the national debt seems to be just that much unnecessary hand wringing. Click here to read more about where all this money is hiding and how we managed to grow by such a big number. Seems that when Mr. Bernanke declared the Recession all but over he had an ace up his sleeve with this much good news just around the corner. I feel better already.

Life Does Go On – Things Can Get Better After a Rough Spot

I ran accross this article today and Just felt like sharing it. For many, this Economic Speed Bump has shaken the faith in their belief in the American Dream. Some who bought in and thought they were playing by the rules, found out the hard way what happens when things don’t go according to plan. Families displaced, communities fractured, dreams put on hold. Real consequences for wrong choices or unanticipated circumstances. There is life beyond the carnage. Things can and do get better for for most. Count your blessings daily and look for the opportunity that is everywhere. This is still the greatest country in the world. We just have a little growing up to do as we adjust to the new realities of a global economy.

Jumping on the Good News Bandwagon!

Record Jump in Existing Home Sales Reported … I have generally conducted myself as a glass half full kind of guy for most of my life. Understandably, the last two years have tested my resolve in that regard. After 24 years of success in the Seattle real estate business, things really got fuzzy for me trying to keep a good face on the state of the market while the wheels pretty much came off the bus in the housing sector. For the past few months there has been more good news than bad as inventory has been steady and sales have been gaining some traction in many local markets. While there are those that keep waiting for the other shoe to drop, there is plenty of evidence that things are turning around on many fronts and there are once again, many good reasons for renewed optimism to balance off lingering trepidation. Mind you, prices are still soft and no one expects there aren’t going to be some more bumps in the road, but as the attached article points out, some see that as part of the solution to a longer term fix. I am one of those who believe the media was largely responsible for talking us into the recession and so it is with a sense of mixed irony and satisfaction, I am happy to see them beginning to work on talking us out of it. For now, it is refreshing to at least find some good news to talk about for a change. Here’s to a glass half full!

The Social Media Revolution – A Brief Video Primer

Social Media is advancing at breath taking speeds… Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, Blogs, Etc. For some it seems like just so many more ways to waste time on the internet, for others it is the wild west of opportunity. Here is a quick video primer on just how prolific Social Media Networking is becoming – not just as a way to spend time on the internet, but for many it is the new paradigm and primary means of communicating and conducting commerce. For the baby boomers and others, just trying to keep up can be a constant challenge. For the Gen X and Y crowd, it’s how they communicate and how they are influenced. No matter where you are on the spectrum, Social Media is affecting your world and it is time to take charge or take the hit. I look forward to your comments.